The Logic Lifeline

A logical approach to sorting out world events. Where logic, opinion and speculation are combined to produce a reasoned, but entertaining reading experience. The unofficial hometown conservative blog of Woodridge, Il

Monday, September 26, 2005

Is there only one comeback kid?

There is alot of attention being given to George Bush's approval numbers. While it is true they have been steadily sinking for the last few months, they have faced a number of challenges. To some degree these numbers could have been kept higher if Bush paid more attention to them. While I think every politician cares about his popularity to some degree, Bush does not seem to devote time or decisions to boosting them. In fact, the post Katrina visits are the first sign I recall seeing that they might hold some significance to him.

There were several key low points in Bill Clinton's career that he was able to rise above gaining the moniker "Come Back Kid". I think George W. Bush learned a valuable lesson from his father: the timing of polls is critical. After the victory in the gulf, his poll numbers were 88%. After the Dems swindled him into breaking his no new taxes pledge, they dwindled all the way to the election. The fact is the media abhors high poll numbers, so they will seek to do their part in dwindling them. To have high poll numbers at this time is electorally a waste. The times he will need the highest poll numbers is November 06 and November 08, and I am sure in January 09 he would like to go out well, too.

I predict the numbers will languish about where they are at right now until the end of the year. I suspect things to begin to occur early next year with perhaps a big event next September. You will likely see his numbers rise steadily and spike right before the '06 election. I have predicted a pick up of 2 Senate seats for the GOP - against most current thinking I am sure. With these pickups and Bush's numbers on the rise, there will be enough capital for a final push in his presidency to go out well.

I will suffer the inevitable question of "what are you smoking, dude", but I would ask the same of those on the left who see Al Gore as their best shot at the White House in '08. For the most part reasons for anger at Bush has been manufactured by the left. The elections of 2000 and '04 are the only true reasons for their anger; the rest is blown up. Most are immune to the temper tantrums of the left, but even if some have been caught up in this quagmire of deceit anger does not last long. We have seen the highest level of anger in the country dwindle after 9-11. As for the war, most don't want to see another Vietnam early pull-out. So time is not on the side of the left, but on Bush's side.

So look for talk of another "Come Back Kid" in the future.


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