Krauthammer calls for a wall

Charles Krauthammer is calling for a border wall to be built in a column entitled "First a Wall -- Then Amnesty". He eludes to the immigration debacle in Washington as Congress cannot seem to have to fortitude to do what needs to be done first - secure the border. He criticizes the notion of addressing the immigrant here first, then work on securing the border:

Every sensible immigration policy has two objectives: (1) to regain control of our borders so that it is we who decide who enters and (2) to find a way to normalize and legalize the situation of the 11 million illegals among us.

Start with the second. No one of good will wants to see these 11 million suffer. But the obvious problem is that legalization creates an enormous incentive for new illegals to come.

Most people reading this would not find that hard to understand and that is the problem. Liberals do understand it very well and realize if they fight for the first, they can keep the cycle going. He goes on to say:

We say, of course, that this will be the very last, very final, never-again, we're-not-kidding-this-time amnesty. The problem is that we say exactly the same thing with every new reform. And everyone knows it's phony.

The fact is that both the Democrats and Bush are looking at this issue from the standpoint of long term political strategy. For Democrats it is a much less risky plan on the surface and for the GOP it is a much more risky plan on the surface. Hispanics have historically voted Democrat as a majority, so it seems simple that the Dems would win this gambit by propogating the cycle. While I don't think Bush wants to propogate the cycle, he does not want to lose inroads into the Hispanic voting community by being too aggressive.

Both gambles could end up biting one side or the other. In order for Bush to succeed in his gamble the Hispanic community needs to continue its swift economic rise that has been happening for several years now. Poverty will always vote Democrat. One who is in poverty is likely not educated enough to see that massive socialism will keep them trapped in poverty. As Hispanics rise economically, more tend to vote GOP as they realize that the American dream is rooted in capitalism. Democrats on the other hand to succeed in their gamble must keep the Hispanic community from rising too much in the economic ladder. They will do this by massive socialist initiatives. So the economic future of Hispanics will determine the winner of the gamble of not securing the border.

On the surface I do not see Hispanic prosperity rising enough to offset rising "new voters" that lean Democrat. The next economic downturn could kill the momentum. Also, at some point there will be enough recognized voters (notice I did not say legal) to actually pass initiatives to grant Hispanic non-citizens the right to vote. It will start in California and the 9th circuit will support it.

The greatest risk for the Democrats is that very quickly they are going to alienate some of their long time supporters. First, the unions are going to begin turning on them. The unions have been critical of NAFTA, outsourcing and companies moving overseas for lower taxes and cheap labor. They simply cannot continue to ignore the fact that the same result happens when illegal immigrants come here: cheap labor and reduction in taxes costs. The net result is the same: union laborers suffer from job loss and suppressed wages. As I posted earlier, the AFL-CIO is already beginning to speak out on this very thing.

The second group the Democrats are at risk of alienating are Black Americans. Black Americans have been in the hip pocket of the Democrats for decades. It either has happened or soon will happen that the population of Hispanics grows higher than the Black population in the US. Democrats are already split in their attention between the two groups and it is only a matter of time before the Dems start obviously favoring Hispanics. Economically, illegal Hispanics are a threat to Blacks for the lower paying jobs and Hispanic entrepreneurs are a threat to Blacks looking to break from their historic poverty and participate in the American dream. The bottom line is that the Dems are at risk of losing the Black vote. The Black community and the unions would do themselves a favor by standing up now and demanding action.

Huge gambles here. I disagree that Bush needs to gamble, though. As the saying goes "a bird in hand is worth two in the bush". No pun intended. Politically a solidified energized base is stronger than a weakened, disgruntled base in order to "snag" a few votes from the other side. A wall on the border would supercharge the GOP base. I don't know of any other country that is so loose with their borders, unless it is a 3rd world country where nobody wants to go anyway. For economic and security reasons I have said before and say again, "Mr. Bush build up this wall!"