Newt Says Hillary Chances Down to 50-50

The National Review provides comments by Newt Gingrich on Sean Hannity's radio show:

Newt Gingrich called in to Sean Hannity's radio program to discuss Hillary Clinton's debate performance. Highlights:

“Her performance in that debate was so bad, on issues that matter so much, she may not be able to recover from it… This issue of Spitzer trying to give out d l to people at a time when your driver’s licenseallows you to vote – for her to trap herself into saying that creates a big wound…

The fact that she said she’s basically sympathetic with Rangel’s trillion dollar tax increase – that’s going to arouse some deep opposition. The huge Democratic tax increase allowed us to win in 1994… Then, I saw in a ticker on Fox News, when Sen. Edwards said nominating her would be ‘a victory for a corruption machine’… it brings back a lot of memories of the Chinese funding scandals of 1996… It takes her winning the nomination from an 80 percent likelihood to a 50 percent. It’s even money. If she doesn’t turn this around quick, I may have to call back in and take it even lower.”

I'm not so sure the damage is that bad - Yet. I would say she had a 99% chance before and this combined with other recent developments lowered her to 70%. Hillary is on fly paper right now. I don't see how she will be able to release herself from it. She has based her whole campaign on avoiding locking herself into key positions. Until the Philadelphia debate, she has been able to get away with it. Her performance, however, was so bad that the media simply could not cover for it. The genie is out of the bottle now and it will be very difficult for the media to go back to allowing her to get away with such across the board ambiguity. She is sunk in the general election if she continues on this route. However, being forced to take positions that will satisfy the far left enough to get the nomination will slaughter her in the general.

If Hillary does lose the nomination, she will likely lose it to Obama. That move will be a gift to the GOP. Obama has been very clear on his positions, but most are deal-killers. Some have said that unless the GOP can make 2008 about National Security they will lose. An Obama nomination where he has clearly stated he supports giving illegal immigrants drivers licenses can easily make 2008 about immigration. A strong policy that opposes amnesty and drivers licenses is a clear winning position. If Hillary has ceded the nomination to Obama, it may prove that the debate was the first domino that leads to a GOP victory in 2008.