The Logic Lifeline

A logical approach to sorting out world events. Where logic, opinion and speculation are combined to produce a reasoned, but entertaining reading experience. The unofficial hometown conservative blog of Woodridge, Il

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Presidential Election December 23, 2007 Snapshot

By now I thought the nomination would be pretty sown up on both sides. Instead things are so dynamically changing every day it is nearly impossible to determine what will happen. That will not stop me from making my assessments.

First, on the Democrat side it has been a little fun watching Hillary taking some well deserved blows. I spoke of her glass jaw in a previous post and right now it appears she had one. Back in the Philadelphia Debate all it seemed to take was one clear firm question asking her about her position on giving drivers licenses to illegal immigrants. When Russert did not allow her to skate by without a clear answer, the glass jaw shattered. Hillary Clinton has been on a downward spiral ever since. There are several theories out there to explain this rapid decline. Some claim they have some serious dirt on her and the party has demanded she take a dive. Indeed many of the missteps since appear to be purposeful they are so bad. The second theory is that it is a setup to announce she is another “Comeback Kid” like Bill was in his first election. For awhile I also thought this, but her descent has been much further than I would expect for such a ploy. I think the real reason she has crashed, is that her public image was so completely based on vapor that the first un-sequestered glimpse of reality has completely pulled the curtain away from the man in the corner.

I think the DEM race is still a 50/50 shot. Hillary will not win Iowa, but she has time to re-surge given the right mixture of action and the help of a few missteps from the inexperienced Obama. The media may also want to keep thinks interesting. They have an investment in the Clintons I think they will be reluctant to throw away. If Hillary loses, she and Bill will be thoroughly damaged goods afterwards. At this point, I think Hillary will pull out of this by February and surge to the nomination by April. Of course, in the interest of full disclosure I think she is the easier candidate to beat in the General.

Now for those head scratching GOP voters – what are ye thinkin’?!! While I strongly have maintained that the worst GOP candidate is better than the best DEM candidate, a Mike Huckabee nomination would be disastrous on multiple fronts. First, I do not think there is a remote possibility of him winning the general election if nominated. Second, his likely un-conservative actions in office would be frustrating for the conservative movement and an embarrassment for Christians. The Bush presidency has opened the door for many comedians and pundits to take cheap shots at Christianity. Huckabee would throw open that door quite widely. The fact is that whether in leadership or among the masses, people today are not representing the Christian faith very well. This is a fact that is highlighted and underscored when there is an Evangelical Christian in high office. A break from that would be welcomed on my part.

Fortunately, I think Huckabee surged early enough to draw enough attention to what he really is about that his rise is now ebbing. I am also happy that Giuliani seems to be sinking across the board. I am not very enthusiastic about a Giuliani or McCain nomination. The GOP candidates can be divided into three categories: 1) They have a chance at winning 2) They have no chance at winning and unless things are exceptionally close will have very little impact on the election 3) They have very little chance at winning the nomination, but will likely pull enough votes to act as a spoiler for at least one other candidate. Giuliani and Romney are the only candidates that have a good shot at winning. Among the 2nd category, on Ron Paul has enough votes to upset a close election. In spite of Huckabee’s current popularity and possible early success, he will not survive the larger states. Huckabee, McCain and Thompson will carry enough votes to possibly spoil the nomination for either Romney or Giuliani. If too many votes are diverted away from Romney in the early states, Giuliani will likely begin to gain momentum after the first 4-5 states. If Romney can win either Iowa or New Hampshire, he may be strong enough to take South Carolina – especially if Huckabee is 3rd or 4th in New Hampshire. If Romney is mediocre in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will be toast in South Carolina and not likely to regain traction. I am still hopeful Romney will persevere.

So in summary for this snapshot my money is on Hillary and Romney for the DEM and GOP nominations. I am planning the next snapshot after Iowa.

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15 Comments:

  • At 10:46 AM, Blogger SkyePuppy said…

    Good analysis. Still... I saw an article recently saying Hillary and Romney have the highest percentage of people who refuse to ever vote for them. I'm not sure how that's going to play out in the general election, especially if it's both of them running against each other.

     
  • At 10:53 AM, Blogger All_I_Can_Stands said…

    The difference is that the more people learn about Romney, the more inclined they are to like him. Everybody knows Hillary very well already. They either are choosing to overlook her many many flaws in favor of her ideology or they know her and will never vote for her.

     
  • At 11:09 AM, Blogger SkyePuppy said…

    Merry Christmas, AICS!

     
  • At 6:07 AM, Blogger adam brown said…

    Hi, this is not so related to your page, but it is the site you asked me 1 month ago about the abs diet. I tried it, worked well. Well here is the site

     
  • At 1:40 PM, Blogger Malott said…

    AICS,

    I think you're right about Romney. I can't think of a faction in the Republican Party that would'nt get behind the guy if he got the nomination... And they got to knowm him.

    Not to disagree w/ Skyepuppy, but Giuliani probably would keep more Republicans home than Romney.

    Romney comes across as a competent administrator. And when asked, my grandmother said she voted for JFK because - he was a good looking man... So there you go.

    But at this point, the only top tier republican that is a sure loser... Is Huckabee.

     
  • At 8:02 PM, Blogger Jacob said…

    Romney, Guiliani, Huckabee - PUKE PUKE PUKE.

    Why isn't Condi running?

     
  • At 4:03 PM, Blogger Joe Smoe: American Citizen said…

    Like I said before nobody really trusts Clinton and none of the judgemental Bible Banging pinheads of the South will vote for a Mormon ie Romney. To them A vote for either would be a vote for SATAN.

    Either way unless something changes soon the Dems will take the WH in 08. Here's why:

    1) The best thing that every happened to the Dem party since Nixon is the FAILED presidency of Bush.

    2)People ie America and the World have had ENOUGH of Bush and the GOP..look where they have taken the country.

    3)I like Ron Paul, but he will split the Republican vote and thus the the Dems will win the Lions share of the Vote.

    I hate to say it,but I'm gonna miss having the Evil GOP at the helm, as they and their failed and evil policies are an easy target, but I do look forward to the Economy picking up again and the little guy making some real money after a helluva long time.

    HAPPY NEW YEAR..THE LAST YEAR OF BUSH'S REIGN!!!!,

    JOE

     
  • At 7:10 PM, Blogger Joe Smoe: American Citizen said…

    Also, I feel the only way that the GOP does have a shot for the WH in '08 is if Clinton and Obama are the choices of the Democratic party. I say this as I know full well that the vast majority of America is made up of country music listening/stock car going RED NECKS that would rather have a bullet in the head than vote for a Women or a Black Man for the executive branch. Sorry to say, but this is a REALITY.

    America is a great country, but it sure as hell isn't open minded and progressive. Example: 51% voted for Bush in the last election didn't they?

    Joe

     
  • At 5:39 AM, Blogger Jacob said…

    Turn down your retard meter please, Joe.

     
  • At 4:25 PM, Blogger Joe Smoe: American Citizen said…

    Sorry, but if I do that than I wouldn't be able to understand you.

    Thanks for supplying the picture of yourself. I printed out a copy, hung it on the Fridge, and now the kids won't go near it. The Grocery bill is falling as we speak.

    Any other smart ass comments pretty boy?

     
  • At 12:13 AM, Blogger Jacob said…

    Wait... I'm so ugly that your kids won't go near the fridge, but I'm a pretty boy?

     
  • At 10:58 AM, Blogger Joe Smoe: American Citizen said…

    Yes, it is one of the many Enigmas of this life

    EX: you say your a boy and yet you dress like a girl.

    Got a little gender confusion going on do ya?

    Also, the the kids are scared $***less and it would seem the mice and other vermin are also, as ever since I hung your picture on the fridge the pest problem in the kitchen has seemed to also abate. I thought about hanging the pictures all over the house as I would like to see less of my mother in law but I don't want to start having nightmares myself.

    On a political note...take note that Hillary is self destructing as I said she would.

     
  • At 1:25 PM, Blogger Joe Smoe: American Citizen said…

    Looks like she got a reprieve. Have no fear though, she'll sink like a stone when she hits the South.


    Spinachboy.....where are you?\

    JOE

     
  • At 8:14 AM, Blogger All_I_Can_Stands said…

    All,

    My apologies for my absence. At this time it can't be helped. I have to focus on some things more important and am not sure when I will be back.

    AICS

     
  • At 2:15 PM, Blogger Joe Smoe: American Citizen said…

    Take care Pal. I hope all is well with you and yours. Hope to hear from you soon.

    Joe

     

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