Presidential Election December 23, 2007 Snapshot

By now I thought the nomination would be pretty sown up on both sides. Instead things are so dynamically changing every day it is nearly impossible to determine what will happen. That will not stop me from making my assessments.

First, on the Democrat side it has been a little fun watching Hillary taking some well deserved blows. I spoke of her glass jaw in a previous post and right now it appears she had one. Back in the Philadelphia Debate all it seemed to take was one clear firm question asking her about her position on giving drivers licenses to illegal immigrants. When Russert did not allow her to skate by without a clear answer, the glass jaw shattered. Hillary Clinton has been on a downward spiral ever since. There are several theories out there to explain this rapid decline. Some claim they have some serious dirt on her and the party has demanded she take a dive. Indeed many of the missteps since appear to be purposeful they are so bad. The second theory is that it is a setup to announce she is another “Comeback Kid” like Bill was in his first election. For awhile I also thought this, but her descent has been much further than I would expect for such a ploy. I think the real reason she has crashed, is that her public image was so completely based on vapor that the first un-sequestered glimpse of reality has completely pulled the curtain away from the man in the corner.

I think the DEM race is still a 50/50 shot. Hillary will not win Iowa, but she has time to re-surge given the right mixture of action and the help of a few missteps from the inexperienced Obama. The media may also want to keep thinks interesting. They have an investment in the Clintons I think they will be reluctant to throw away. If Hillary loses, she and Bill will be thoroughly damaged goods afterwards. At this point, I think Hillary will pull out of this by February and surge to the nomination by April. Of course, in the interest of full disclosure I think she is the easier candidate to beat in the General.

Now for those head scratching GOP voters – what are ye thinkin’?!! While I strongly have maintained that the worst GOP candidate is better than the best DEM candidate, a Mike Huckabee nomination would be disastrous on multiple fronts. First, I do not think there is a remote possibility of him winning the general election if nominated. Second, his likely un-conservative actions in office would be frustrating for the conservative movement and an embarrassment for Christians. The Bush presidency has opened the door for many comedians and pundits to take cheap shots at Christianity. Huckabee would throw open that door quite widely. The fact is that whether in leadership or among the masses, people today are not representing the Christian faith very well. This is a fact that is highlighted and underscored when there is an Evangelical Christian in high office. A break from that would be welcomed on my part.

Fortunately, I think Huckabee surged early enough to draw enough attention to what he really is about that his rise is now ebbing. I am also happy that Giuliani seems to be sinking across the board. I am not very enthusiastic about a Giuliani or McCain nomination. The GOP candidates can be divided into three categories: 1) They have a chance at winning 2) They have no chance at winning and unless things are exceptionally close will have very little impact on the election 3) They have very little chance at winning the nomination, but will likely pull enough votes to act as a spoiler for at least one other candidate. Giuliani and Romney are the only candidates that have a good shot at winning. Among the 2^nd category, on Ron Paul has enough votes to upset a close election. In spite of Huckabee’s current popularity and possible early success, he will not survive the larger states. Huckabee, McCain and Thompson will carry enough votes to possibly spoil the nomination for either Romney or Giuliani. If too many votes are diverted away from Romney in the early states, Giuliani will likely begin to gain momentum after the first 4-5 states. If Romney can win either Iowa or New Hampshire, he may be strong enough to take South Carolina – especially if Huckabee is 3^rd or 4^th in New Hampshire. If Romney is mediocre in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will be toast in South Carolina and not likely to regain traction. I am still hopeful Romney will persevere.

So in summary for this snapshot my money is on Hillary and Romney for the DEM and GOP nominations. I am planning the next snapshot after Iowa.