The Logic Lifeline

A logical approach to sorting out world events. Where logic, opinion and speculation are combined to produce a reasoned, but entertaining reading experience. The unofficial hometown conservative blog of Woodridge, Il

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Barron's 2006 Predictions in Synch With Logic Lifeline

Almost 2 weeks ago I put out my predictions for this year's Congressional races. My predictions go against "conventional wisdom" and if correct will leave both houses with the GOP. My numbers are that the GOP will lose 7 seats in the House and 2 seats in the Senate. Barron's magazine has come out with a cover story also predicting retention of GOP control in both houses. Their numbers add 1 loss more to each house than mine - virtually in synch. Here is the significant section of Barron's:
JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three
The formula Barron's uses is based upon campaign financial data. Apparently, this barometer has been 89% accurate in the past. Critics claim that this year is different because the voters are more emotional this year than in the past. (I suppose not emotional enough to give more money than the GOP has, but emotional enough to vote). Speaking of voters, Chris Malott gains a hat tip with his post on a piece by Hugh Hewitt about voters. Hugh states:
My theory on this is that Republicans are serious adult citizens, Democrats and Independents are not. Republicans by and large take their citizenship seriously, inform themselves and vote accordingly. The rest of the population doesn’t even register to vote, or only vote when they are sufficiently ginned up, or when they are herded on busses to the polls. They base their opinions on chanted slogans or newspaper headlines, and take their responsibility to vote about as serious as all their other responsibilities as citizens.
Remember the last election drive to get out the young vote via MTV (vote or die)? Those votes did not materialize. It will be the same this year. This group that looks to the government for everything will be waiting for a government bus to drive them to the polls, so they will not show up. Hewitt also has another post shoing that the GOP base is engaged and ready to vote:
Despite the media hype, an examination of all the facts makes it clear: the Republican base is active and engaged. No matter how you measure it—whether by record-breaking fundraising, unprecedented volunteerism, or scientific polling—the numbers show that Republicans understand the importance of the choice we all face on November 7.
Every other day I see signs of the Dems looking over their shoulder fearing a loss of what should be a big victory. Most recently we began hearing that Nanci Pelosi might not necessarily be Speaker of the House. Ouch! While the GOP may not fully deserve re-election, many GOP know America does not deserve a Nanci Pelosi Speaker of the House. The Dems have given no plan to show they would do any better in the areas voters are angry with the GOP and their history shows they would do much worst.

Either way this year's election will be fun to watch. If the GOP does retain control, look for Dems to lose control.

8 Comments:

  • At 6:36 PM, Blogger Malott said…

    I've always believed that the one issue that frustrated and angered conservatives the most was the "illegals" problem. Ironically it was the House Republicans that "got it right" - and they're the ones most threatened in this election.

    But two little words will deliver conservatives to the polls this fall... And those words are:
    Speaker Pelosi.

     
  • At 7:29 PM, Blogger LASunsett said…

    //But two little words will deliver conservatives to the polls this fall... And those words are:
    Speaker Pelosi.//


    If that doesn't get the job done, try the term, "San Francisco values".

     
  • At 4:24 AM, Blogger Malott said…

    lasunett,

    Nancy reflects very well those ultra-liberal, blame America First, pro-ACLU, anti-Christian, pro-gay marriage, anti-war, anti-military, United Nations groveling, etc - values that San Francisco is known for.

     
  • At 9:08 AM, Blogger All_I_Can_Stands said…

    malott, which is why they started this tripe that Pelosi might not be Speaker even if they win. Pretty bad when you have to hide your front leaders. Hey, where has Reid been hiding?


    LA gets oxymoron gold star :)

     
  • At 2:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said…

    Malott said:
    "Nancy reflects very well those ultra-liberal, blame America First, pro-ACLU, anti-Christian, pro-gay marriage, anti-war, anti-military, United Nations groveling, etc - values that San Francisco is known for."

    So insightful. Do you ever think for yourself or do you just repeat what talk radio tells you to.
    Oh, I just heard Sean Hannity tell you to take a tinkle so I'll let you go now. Don't forget to wash your hands afterward.

     
  • At 3:14 PM, Anonymous WHO WOULD JESUS KILL said…

    //Anonymous said...

    So insightful. Do you ever think for yourself or do you just repeat what talk radio tells you to.
    Oh, I just heard Sean Hannity tell you to take a tinkle so I'll let you go now. Don't forget to wash your hands afterward.//

    Nope, that's asking too much and if you don't join in on their Right Wing circle jerk they'll threaten to censor you.

     
  • At 3:26 PM, Blogger SkyePuppy said…

    Anonymous,

    You really know how to argue the points with great logic and clarity. I'm convinced.

    WWJK,

    Who's trying to censor you? Maybe you should check the definition of "censor" again, just as a refresher, because I think you lost its meaning somewhere along the way.

     
  • At 1:00 PM, Blogger Malott said…

    Anonymous and WWJK,

    Actually I have never had the least bit of trouble thinking for myself or expressing my thoughts in what I like to think is a unique and thought provoking manner - for an amateur, that is.

    I do think that Pelosi, and the Democrat leadership in general is a drag on your Party. They represent the far left fringe groups very well, but that is a very small constituency in this country.

    I sincerely hope that one day a more moderate to conservative group of Democrats leads your party back to the values of FDR and JFK. It would be good for your Party and good for the country as well.

     

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home