AICS Election Picks
One common trend I am seeing is that most people have a difficult time tearing away from their desired outcome when making election predictions. I admit I may be in that category, but I think my view is a good mix between realism and optimism. There are several factors:
1) The GOP has the momentum according to the latest polls
2) Barrons pointed out the money advantage of the GOP
3) How often have we seen the polls favor Dems by several points and see a GOP victory. I
think it is probably a safe bet to add 2-3 points to the GOP candidate in every high profile
race
So here are some predictions:
Senate:
Arizona - Jon Kyl (R)
Connecticut - Lieberman (I)
Maryland - Michael Steele (R) (thanks to Gore campaigning for Cardin)
Michigan - Debbie Stabanow (D)
Minnesota - Amy Klobuchar (D)
Missouri - Jim Talent (R)
Montana - Conrad Burns (R)
New Jersey - Kean may pull of an upset, but I am calling Menendez (D)
Pennsylvania (My long shot) Santorum by 2% (R)
Ohio - Sherrod Brown (D)
Rhode Island - Lincoln Chaffee will pull it off. (R)
Tennesee - Bob Corker (R)
Virginia - George Allen (R)
Washington - Maria Cantwell (D)
House:
(I can't do all 435)
Indiana -07 - Eric Dickerson (R)
Minnesota - 06 - Bachmann (R)
Florida - 16 - Joe Negron (R) (as Mark Foley)
Illinois - 06 - Roskam (R) over Duckworth by less than 1000 votes
Illinois - 08 - Melissa Bean (D)
Illinois - 10 - Mark Kirk (R)
Texas - 22 - Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) will pull off a surprise
Final overall numbers GOP will lose 3 seats in the Senate and lose 10 seats in the House
If my predictions are wrong then what? I will be disappointed, but I certainly won't be falling apart in despair. Maybe some good would come of it:
- Perhaps the US needs a reminder why power shifted to the GOP.
- We will get to see the Dems disappointed in their elected officials
- The Democrats will implode in a fight between the far left kooks and those who want
continued existence of the party
- The Dems will face a lose - lose situation: If they move to impeach, they will be exposed for
being too radical. If they do not move to impeach, those who elected them will be furious
- Conservative blogs get to do a little offensive work for a change
In any event, I will not get a chance to post on the election for nearly a week. My wife and I are flying out tomorrow to head to Hawaii for an early celebration of our anniversary. However the election turns out, we can all be thankful to live here (as Michael Medved calls it) "the greatest nation on God's green earth". God Bless America. See you in a week.
1) The GOP has the momentum according to the latest polls
2) Barrons pointed out the money advantage of the GOP
3) How often have we seen the polls favor Dems by several points and see a GOP victory. I
think it is probably a safe bet to add 2-3 points to the GOP candidate in every high profile
race
So here are some predictions:
Senate:
Arizona - Jon Kyl (R)
Connecticut - Lieberman (I)
Maryland - Michael Steele (R) (thanks to Gore campaigning for Cardin)
Michigan - Debbie Stabanow (D)
Minnesota - Amy Klobuchar (D)
Missouri - Jim Talent (R)
Montana - Conrad Burns (R)
New Jersey - Kean may pull of an upset, but I am calling Menendez (D)
Pennsylvania (My long shot) Santorum by 2% (R)
Ohio - Sherrod Brown (D)
Rhode Island - Lincoln Chaffee will pull it off. (R)
Tennesee - Bob Corker (R)
Virginia - George Allen (R)
Washington - Maria Cantwell (D)
House:
(I can't do all 435)
Indiana -07 - Eric Dickerson (R)
Minnesota - 06 - Bachmann (R)
Florida - 16 - Joe Negron (R) (as Mark Foley)
Illinois - 06 - Roskam (R) over Duckworth by less than 1000 votes
Illinois - 08 - Melissa Bean (D)
Illinois - 10 - Mark Kirk (R)
Texas - 22 - Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) will pull off a surprise
Final overall numbers GOP will lose 3 seats in the Senate and lose 10 seats in the House
If my predictions are wrong then what? I will be disappointed, but I certainly won't be falling apart in despair. Maybe some good would come of it:
- Perhaps the US needs a reminder why power shifted to the GOP.
- We will get to see the Dems disappointed in their elected officials
- The Democrats will implode in a fight between the far left kooks and those who want
continued existence of the party
- The Dems will face a lose - lose situation: If they move to impeach, they will be exposed for
being too radical. If they do not move to impeach, those who elected them will be furious
- Conservative blogs get to do a little offensive work for a change
In any event, I will not get a chance to post on the election for nearly a week. My wife and I are flying out tomorrow to head to Hawaii for an early celebration of our anniversary. However the election turns out, we can all be thankful to live here (as Michael Medved calls it) "the greatest nation on God's green earth". God Bless America. See you in a week.
posted by All_I_Can_Stands @ 10:43 PM
11 Comments:
At 7:00 AM,
All_I_Can_Stands said…
Sorry casual, no spam alowed here.
At 1:31 PM,
Anonymous said…
Conservative blogs get to do a little offensive work for a change -AICS
For a change? Conservative blogs are always offensive.
At 2:48 PM,
SkyePuppy said…
Have a wonderful trip to Hawaii!
At 5:22 PM,
All_I_Can_Stands said…
wwjk, sorry no spam allowed. It has been removed.
patriot, cute.
skyepuppy, thanks.
At 9:29 AM,
Joe Smoe: American Citizen said…
Well deleter of posts opposite your views aka SPINACHBOY I figured that I would stop by and just say that America has spoken and that Bush is the cause of this major loss. Now the Dems have him and the rest of his corrupt and incompetent administration right where they want them...ie BY THE BALLS!!!
Maybe there will be an Impeachment...maybe not,but one thing is for sure with subpoena
power at the end of the next two years the America people will know just how inept and corrupt this Moron and his Regime really are. This loss for your side is ALL DUE TO BUSH! I am truly gonna enjoy the next two years as we all witness the slow political demise of GW Bush as it is laid bare for all to see that he is one of the worst to ever hold the office of President.
Now feel free to delete this post.
At 9:33 AM,
Anonymous said…
I'm glad AICS appreciated my little bit of election night ribbing, and so while he is vacationing in Hawaii, I'll guest post an update on his election night predictions:
Senate:
Arizona - Jon Kyl (R) correct
Connecticut - Lieberman (I) correct, thanks to the GOP, who gave their own candidate Schlesinger a meager 10% of their votes
Maryland - Michael Steele (R) (thanks to Gore campaigning for Cardin) wrong on the outcome but correct on the reasoning, with help from Steele and Tyson
Michigan - Debbie Stabanow (D) correct
Minnesota - Amy Klobuchar (D) correct
Missouri - Jim Talent (R) nope
Montana - Conrad Burns (R) not likely
New Jersey - Kean may pull of an upset, but I am calling Menendez (D) correct
Pennsylvania (My long shot) Santorum by 2% (R) this one had me laughing anyways - AICS call is off by a 20% margin
Ohio - Sherrod Brown (D) correct
Rhode Island - Lincoln Chaffee will pull it off. (R) nope
Tennesee - Bob Corker (R) correct
Virginia - George Allen (R) not likely
Washington - Maria Cantwell (D) correct
House:
(I can't do all 435)
Indiana -07 - Eric Dickerson (R) nope
Minnesota - 06 - Bachmann (R) correct
Florida - 16 - Joe Negron (R) (as Mark Foley) nope
Illinois - 06 - Roskam (R) over Duckworth by less than 1000 votes suprisingly correct for votes against an Iraq War vet in that district, and by more than 1000
Illinois - 08 - Melissa Bean (D) correct
Illinois - 10 - Mark Kirk (R) correct
Texas - 22 - Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) will pull off a surprise nope
Final overall numbers GOP will lose 3 seats in the Senate and lose 10 seats in the House
As is stands now, the GOP has already lost 4 seats, and is poised to lose 6 in the Senate.
The GOP has solidly lost 27 seats and may lose as many as 31 seats in the House
Optimism is always a good thing, but I must venture that some of what AICS wants to call optimism here is actually a detachment from reality (qv Santorum and House), as this election post mortem makes clear. This detachment is not surprising given the Bush administration's strict and regular adherence to dismissing reality, but proper governance of 300 million citizens and the world superpower requires an unwavering dedication to reality.
You will see that unlike what Bush has done (despite his campaign promises to the contrary), the Democrats are the party of cooperation and bipartisanship because they know that is their Constitutional mandate and also happens to be what is best for America. Make no mistake, the Dems will enact their agenda for the middle class and a sane foreign policy, and if they make good on their campaign promises, they will bring a long missing accountability back to Washington, but unlike their colleagues across the aisle, they are not obstructionist for the sake of being obstructionist.
Power shifted to the GOP in 1994 because of Gingrich's brilliant Contract With America. The GOP has been swept out of power because they broke that Contract. Flagrantly. Dems will be disappointed in their elected officials much the same way some Republicans are disappointed in Arlen Specter's support of stem cell research. It happens. The Dems will infight because they are not lemmings that toe the party line, and neither are their constituents, but they will not implode. As for impeachment proceedings, we'll just have to wait and see what comes from any investigations. I'm sure the DC paper shredding cartel has gotten a major boost in the last 24 hours.
While still a disappointing voter turnout at just over 40%, this election is a show of strength, courage and hope. It's a new day in this great nation.
At 2:59 AM,
Merete said…
Finally! The American people has waken up from the zombie state of mind they were in. Thank you guys! Thanks for voting against the war in Iraq and against the destructive path the Republicans were heading for!!
With both the House AND the Senate the future suddenly looks much brighter, you all gave me HOPE again for a better future for all of us.
And fantastic news that Rumsfeld was forced to resign! YEEEEAH! Been waiting for that for soooo long now, I was thrilled. Goodbye Rumsfeld!
Funny thing, Bush said only a week ago that Rummy "is going to stay till the end". Maybe this IS the beginning of the end for the Bush evil empire? Rummy was the first to go, I hope Mr. Vice Pres. Dark Vader is the next to go, then the chimp himself. I say let the impeachment start! The American people has spoken clearly, they want to change the course, not stay the course!
Not so with our dear friend here AICS... I am first of all SHOCKED and AMAZED that he is reaching a new low here now with deleting posts! Daymn!!!
AICS, first you threaten RWA to delete his posts if he uses your blog to create non related posts. Duuh! So everybody needs to comment exactly on what you said otherwise it gets censored! You sound like a dictator!
Then you so arrogantly accuse Joe of posting as RWA! Without any evidence at all, even though Joe is denying it. Why would he do so when he is commenting with his name after all? Only an ignorant person would go that low, but I guess that's running in the GOP family. I think you owe Joe an APOLOGY. Stop drawing your wild conclusions, it's all in your head. Be glad he still bothers to comment on your blog!
And now you are censoring who would jezus kill because he is "spamming" you! WTF! Reality check, AICS! Did he try to sell you Viagra by any chanse? Maybe you should try it once, to get yourself a good lay which might cheer you up a bit! I wonder what wwjk said to be labeled as "SPAM"! GOP FAILURE? WAR IN IRAQ?
Seems to me like you are losing friends faster than fast here. Seems you are very stressed at the moment and cannot deal with all of us Leftists who's opinion differences from your own. You can't just delete posts because they say something you don't like to hear! Ha! I thought America was the "land of the FREE, and there was a FREEDOM OF SPEECH" there. Clearly not the case on your blog.
Feel free to delete my post too, if you keep on censoring all the ones here with a different view from your own, you'll be left with only your "yes men", which probably is what you want. If I see you delete more posts I wont even bother to come back here no more.
At 6:46 PM,
Unknown said…
I'm glad for the outcome. Now I can hope for some gridlock and government inactivity. If they cancel each other out...hopefully...then they can't get any bigger.
Problem comes if in 08 a dem wins the white house and the donkeys retain the houses. Watch out for govt. explosion. not that the gop hasn't multiplied the size of govt by many times the last six years...
i'd also like to point out the gains made by marijuana initiatives in three states. losing efforts in colorado and nevada (my beautiful state) but made gains over past attempts. medical weed narrowly lost in s.dakota - maybe will pass next time. many city and counties passed measures to put pot at the lowest police priority. good news for those of us who believe the drug war is an idiotic and dangerous policy in so many ways.
At 9:48 AM,
All_I_Can_Stands said…
All,
I have posted on the election outcome. You can read my crow eating experience there.
patriot, thanks for the post-mortem. As for the detachment from reality, perhaps my general prediction and the Santorum prediction show that. However, several that I was wrong on were very close. As for the Santorum prediction, I had made that prediction a year ago on another blog and decided to stick with it as a long shot.
As for your comments of the Dems being a party of cooperation, etc. as I posted in the general post - all those with high hopes of the Dems enacting their "wish list" will be very disappointed before long.
Merete, call it censorship if you wish. I have more courtesy than RWA or WWJK than to use somebody elses blog as their personal bulletin board. If I did the same to you, you would soon come to the same decision I did. Please consider your response, because if you insist on the charge of censorship, I will very likely test you by cross posting every one of my posts in the comments section of your blog. We will see how long it takes for you to begin deleting them :)
RWA,
Still spam, but consider it a gift.
Joe,
Why would I delete your comment. It is 100% related.
At 9:23 AM,
Merete said…
AICS, what is this now, just because I think it's ridiculous that you start deleting posts from the other guys here, you are going to hit me with the fear stick like a good Republican always do? Ha ha, your threat just made me laugh.
I told you before and I tell you again that I do not delete posts on my blog. Dot. You can rent and rave and cross post as much as you'd like, BRING IT ON! Ha ha. I found your comment very childish and if that is how you like to play, that just tells us a lot about you.
I have no idea why you hate RWA so much, how come his last post is considered as spam?! He even picked it up on your favorite site, Drudge!
You know, not everybody have been born with the talent of writing and not everybody writes in the same way. The way I see it RWA is using a signature which you call spam. Why can't he use those pieces of lines in his posts? Beats me!
What if he had a signature which praised the Bush Govern., would that have been OK by you? Yes, I think so, you would never even consider it as spam because you shared his opinion.
Oh, and you still owe Joe and apology. Maybe he'll come back if you give him one, but I guess that's hard, eh?
At 1:24 PM,
All_I_Can_Stands said…
Merete,
Ok, you busted me. My threat was of the UN "or else" type: all talk, no do. I could never be as rude as RWA. However, spam is still not allowed here. I will have to go with my definition of it. While you may enjoy it (as you see it as an attempt to shove a stick in my eye), other readers whom I know personally do not. For the enjoyment of all (especially myself - which is why I blog) I will stick to my rule and falsely be branded a censor.
If somebody did spam on a continuous basis with opinions I favor, I would still ask that person to stop.
As for Joe, I can assure you I do not owe him an apology. The claims I made are fact. There are also more facts I have not revealed, but I have no wish to further embarrass him. These facts are available for all to see if they know where to look.
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