Presidential 2008 Election May12, 2007 Snapshot

While I have resisted talking about next year's election, everyone else is leaving me behind. So I plan to post a snapshot every month on how I view the election at the time. I will first cover myself by stating clearly these are too early to be considered "predictions". In my job we are forced to provide initial estimates before we complete the detailed designs. This is so senior management can have a peek into what we are doing and what we think it will cost now. We are told that we can change it after design and that they won't hold our initial estimates against us. Right. So I add caveats and risks and throw the Hail Mary. So consider these snapshots a Hail Mary.

While there are candidates and possible candidates that I may like better than the viable ones, it just makes no sense to waste much time on them. I think their presence is important to influence the debate. If I wanted to discuss the unviable possible candidate I would want to win most, I would be talking about myself.

One problem is that as time goes by things are uncovered about the candidates that may make them less appealing. I was tempted to jump on the Fred Thompson bandwagon, but sadly I think he has peaked. His delay in jumping in seems to have had a cooling effect. We'll see if he can renew it.

Rudy Giuliani also seems to have peaked and is a sinking star. His latest tactic seems to be to be forthcoming about his views on abortion. The fact that he was not forthcoming until now bothers me as much as his stance on the issue. He has done some good things for the GOP, but I think he has too many skeletons in his closet. You can't be mayor of a city like New York and not have skeletons. An October surprise would not be a surprise in his case. For that reason he is even too risky for VP.

The star of John McCain seems to be rising a bit. He has stepped up his conservative rhetoric and some are buying it. I thank McCain for his service and respect his suffering in Vietnam. He has tried to get along with the opposition, but in a naive way thinking they also want what is best for the country more than power. If McCain were to become the nominee or even president I would not fret, but he would not be my first choice and I would be waiting for the frequent opportunities to blog about his bent to dart to the left from time to time.

My current first selection resides with Mitt Romney. Romney's Mormon background may cause some to reject him, I think that most of such bigotry resides on the Left as Al Sharpton displayed this week. Romney has several very strong points: his appearance is impressive, his communication is effective and articulated, his tremendously successful business background makes him the best choice for government financial reform. Financial reform can and must be the highest priority in the upcoming election. Bush firmly deserves the criticism he has received for the runaway deficit. However, the Dems have clearly shown they have no intention of fixing the problem - but making it worse. In spite of ill will against the GOP, the Dems will confirm by next year what they are now showing now - that they have nothing to offer. Romney can ride fiscal reform to the White House like no other candidate on either side.

His past views on abortion do not trouble me. Even if he truly is what some fear, I think that he would do nothing worse in this area. I do not see this country ever outlawing abortion. There may be a reversal of Roe vs. Wade, but most if not all states already have laws legalizing abortion even if it flips. At most there may be a town here and there that do not allow it and residents there will have to take a longer drive to kill their child. Victory over abortion will come in reducing the number of those who choose it and by a reduction in those who perform it. Both the US and the UK are having trouble keeping enough doctors willing to go into this "glamorous" field.

So as of today's snapshot, Mitt Romney is on top. The primaries are only just over half a year away. Romney's star is rising. Even if the Mormon bigotry is ugly, it gives Romney more national attention. We can all hope for the day when a president BOTH has good political positions AND can also articulate them well. If Romney wins he will have the same effectiveness in communication as Ronald Reagan. He also will have what Reagan did not have - the new media. If Reagan had enjoyed the benefits of Fox News, Conservative Talk Radio and the Internet "higher beings" of Hugh Hewitt, Michelle Malkin, Captain Ed Morrissey, Neal Boortz, Glenn Reynolds and the Powerline 3; he would have been even better. Imagine it.