Presidential 2008 Election May12, 2007 Snapshot

While I have resisted talking about next year's election, everyone else is leaving me behind. So I plan to post a snapshot every month on how I view the election at the time. I will first cover myself by stating clearly these are too early to be considered "predictions". In my job we are forced to provide initial estimates before we complete the detailed designs. This is so senior management can have a peek into what we are doing and what we think it will cost now. We are told that we can change it after design and that they won't hold our initial estimates against us. Right. So I add caveats and risks and throw the Hail Mary. So consider these snapshots a Hail Mary.

While there are candidates and possible candidates that I may like better than the viable ones, it just makes no sense to waste much time on them. I think their presence is important to influence the debate. If I wanted to discuss the unviable possible candidate I would want to win most, I would be talking about myself.

One problem is that as time goes by things are uncovered about the candidates that may make them less appealing. I was tempted to jump on the Fred Thompson bandwagon, but sadly I think he has peaked. His delay in jumping in seems to have had a cooling effect. We'll see if he can renew it.

Rudy Giuliani also seems to have peaked and is a sinking star. His latest tactic seems to be to be forthcoming about his views on abortion. The fact that he was not forthcoming until now bothers me as much as his stance on the issue. He has done some good things for the GOP, but I think he has too many skeletons in his closet. You can't be mayor of a city like New York and not have skeletons. An October surprise would not be a surprise in his case. For that reason he is even too risky for VP.

The star of John McCain seems to be rising a bit. He has stepped up his conservative rhetoric and some are buying it. I thank McCain for his service and respect his suffering in Vietnam. He has tried to get along with the opposition, but in a naive way thinking they also want what is best for the country more than power. If McCain were to become the nominee or even president I would not fret, but he would not be my first choice and I would be waiting for the frequent opportunities to blog about his bent to dart to the left from time to time.

My current first selection resides with Mitt Romney. Romney's Mormon background may cause some to reject him, I think that most of such bigotry resides on the Left as Al Sharpton displayed this week. Romney has several very strong points: his appearance is impressive, his communication is effective and articulated, his tremendously successful business background makes him the best choice for government financial reform. Financial reform can and must be the highest priority in the upcoming election. Bush firmly deserves the criticism he has received for the runaway deficit. However, the Dems have clearly shown they have no intention of fixing the problem - but making it worse. In spite of ill will against the GOP, the Dems will confirm by next year what they are now showing now - that they have nothing to offer. Romney can ride fiscal reform to the White House like no other candidate on either side.

His past views on abortion do not trouble me. Even if he truly is what some fear, I think that he would do nothing worse in this area. I do not see this country ever outlawing abortion. There may be a reversal of Roe vs. Wade, but most if not all states already have laws legalizing abortion even if it flips. At most there may be a town here and there that do not allow it and residents there will have to take a longer drive to kill their child. Victory over abortion will come in reducing the number of those who choose it and by a reduction in those who perform it. Both the US and the UK are having trouble keeping enough doctors willing to go into this "glamorous" field.

So as of today's snapshot, Mitt Romney is on top. The primaries are only just over half a year away. Romney's star is rising. Even if the Mormon bigotry is ugly, it gives Romney more national attention. We can all hope for the day when a president BOTH has good political positions AND can also articulate them well. If Romney wins he will have the same effectiveness in communication as Ronald Reagan. He also will have what Reagan did not have - the new media. If Reagan had enjoyed the benefits of Fox News, Conservative Talk Radio and the Internet "higher beings" of Hugh Hewitt, Michelle Malkin, Captain Ed Morrissey, Neal Boortz, Glenn Reynolds and the Powerline 3; he would have been even better. Imagine it.

Great Sucking Sound in New York

If you hear a great sucking sound in the direction of New York City, in my opinion it will be the presidential hopes of Rudi Giuliani going down the drain. Rudi has made such an incredible gaffe on the subject of funding abortion that I do not think he can recover from the momentum he will lose over it. Right now, the maximum I see for him is a shot at V.P.

As many others, I tend to stay away from the topic of the legality of abortion. My comments in this post do not address whether or not abortion should be legal. My position on that is obvious. My concern over Rudi's statements go deeper. Captain Ed at Captains Quarters provides a transcript on an interview with CNN's Dana Bash that includes a statement from a years old video(my emphasis in bold):

BASH: There's something on -- you know, on YouTube from 1989. It's flying around the Internet. It's -- it's a clip of you.

[tape]GIULIANI: There must be public funding for abortions for poor women. We cannot deny any woman the right to make her own decision about abortion because she lacks resources. [applause] I have also stated that I disagree with President Bush's veto last week of public funding for abortions.

BASH: Is that also your -- going -- going to be your position as president?

[live]GIULIANI: Probably. I mean, I have to reexamine all those issues and exactly what was at stake then. It is a long time ago. But, generally, that's my -- my view. Abortion is wrong. Abortion shouldn't happen. Personally, you should counsel people to that extent. When I was mayor, adoptions went up. Abortions went down.

BASH: So, you...

GIULIANI: But, ultimately, it's a -- it's a -- it's a constitutional right. And, therefore, if it's a constitutional right, ultimately, even you do it on a state-by-state basis, you have to make sure that people are protected.

BASH: So, you support taxpayer money or public funding for abortion in some cases?

GIULIANI: If -- if it would deprive someone of a constitutional right, yes. I mean, if that's the status of the law, then I would, yes.

I think that Giuliani could have survived his pro-choice stance. He had stated he was against abortions and had promised to appoint constructionist judges. There are many in the GOP that are pro-choice and many others that put the war on terror as a higher priority than abortion. He could have weathered this position until this interview.

Like Mitt Romney, Rudi has past positions that would not sit well with the conservative base. Romney has reversed himself on these and actually has a public record of votes for this reversal when he was MA. Governor. While many may put other issues higher than abortion, one thing they cannot abide is the notion of their money going toward paying for abortions. Rudi's first mistake was to reinforce his position of public funding for abortions. In this interview, he could have ducked (weak, but surviveable). He could have made a promise not to vote for such funding without stating his current position. On the positive, he did not lie or evade. On the negative, he not only has an unpalatable position for the GOP primary - he underlined it.

Rudi's second mistake was to brand abortion as a "constitutional right". One may be in favor of legalized abortion - the passing of laws to make it legal. However, to claim abortion a constitutional right where no such right is even hinted at in the Constitution brands Giuliani as a liberal to the core. A liberal will take something they want where the law is against or silent and the Constitution is silent and they will create a court ruling out of thin air. Such was Roe vs. Wade. It is one thing to think the laws of the land should allow abortion. It is another to proclaim an abortion is a Constitutional right. It takes a serious legal process of interpretation and converts it into a ridiculous "magic wand" to get what you want.

Rudi's third mistake is to take an already serious breach on conservative principles and add something far worse. He adds the notion that since it is a "constitutional right" those that cannot afford it should be assisted with public funds. This is ludicrous. A local talk show host this week compared this warped thinking to public funding for guns. There is more in the Constitution to grant the right to own a gun than to have an abortion. By Rudi's thinking if someone is too poor to afford a gun, which is their constitutional right, public funding should spring for it. This analogy shows the folly of such thinking in clear terms.

Conservatives have been burned so many times by presidents, senators, congressmen and judges they have supported. Once in office, these have turned against the things they were voted into office for. The GOP president and congress had a strong opportunity to advance the cause of conservatism and strengthen the country. Instead, they sold us out by spending money like drunks no differently than their Democrat predecessors. They refused to enforce our borders from the invasion of illegal immigrants. They refused to enforce existing immigration laws creating a scenario where they present a false need to create new immigration laws. Bush '41 burned us when he said "Read my lips" and then raised taxes instead of cutting spending.

Having been burned so much, this stumble by Rudi Giuliani will cause enough fear of being burned again that the GOP will look elsewhere. Rudi will not survive the the primary unless some miracle happens to help him gain back the momentum he has lost here.