Presidential 2008 Election June 23, 2007 Snapshot

A month ago I began the first of planned periodic snapshots of the 2008 presidential election. I figure it is about time for another. While on the surface it does not seem that much has changed, underneath I can sense some rumblings that surely result in a new landscape by the time the summer apathy begins to wear off.

First, John McCain has very likely committed political suicide by supporting the immigration reform bill. His only hope is that the thing will pass to give the appearance of a political victory. However, by the time the dust settles most will remember that McCain-Feingold CFR was also a "political victory" but has since shown itself to be a dog. Creating law is only a victory if it is good for the people. I have seen reports that McCain's fundraising is really suffering. If this continues he could be the first to withdraw.

Last snapshot I predicted that Fred Thompson had peaked. In fact he has continued rising and is supposed to announce officially next week that he is in. As I have said, I think there are some good things about Thompson. I heard recently that people are not so much allured by Fred Thompson as they are by his TV character on Law and Order. I think this is right. That does not mean that Thompson is bad, it just means that we know more about his TV character and happen to like it. If upon getting to know Thompson, we find we like his true identity maybe he has a chance. So at this point I will change my opinion that he has peaked and say that he will have another growth spurt after announcing. I think his numbers will settle down by the end of summer. His strength of course will be the South. This will make him a very strong contender.

Rudy Giuliani will soon be toast. He has peaked and is slowly sinking. I think we know most of what there is to know about him and therefore his growth is not sustainable. I have not seen him or heard much from him in the media lately. Sure I hear mention of him on talk radio but nothing fresh and exciting. Nothing more hidden in the wings for just the right time either. Thompson has passed him in the polls and he will not get it back.

Mitt Romney is still my favorite to win. The more that is slowly revealed about him the stronger he appears. The Mormon thing may be a strike against him, however it also is one of the things that keeps the media reporting on him. There will be a fresh batch of coverage when the movie "September Dawn" is released. Thompson has the upperhand on him in the south but coming fresh off of Iowa and New Hampshire (which I think he will win), Romney will have momentum.

So that is this snapshot. Things could change very quickly and be a whole new race any time. Time will tell. The three major "I" factors going forward are immigration, income taxes and Iraq.

Presidential 2008 Election May12, 2007 Snapshot

While I have resisted talking about next year's election, everyone else is leaving me behind. So I plan to post a snapshot every month on how I view the election at the time. I will first cover myself by stating clearly these are too early to be considered "predictions". In my job we are forced to provide initial estimates before we complete the detailed designs. This is so senior management can have a peek into what we are doing and what we think it will cost now. We are told that we can change it after design and that they won't hold our initial estimates against us. Right. So I add caveats and risks and throw the Hail Mary. So consider these snapshots a Hail Mary.

While there are candidates and possible candidates that I may like better than the viable ones, it just makes no sense to waste much time on them. I think their presence is important to influence the debate. If I wanted to discuss the unviable possible candidate I would want to win most, I would be talking about myself.

One problem is that as time goes by things are uncovered about the candidates that may make them less appealing. I was tempted to jump on the Fred Thompson bandwagon, but sadly I think he has peaked. His delay in jumping in seems to have had a cooling effect. We'll see if he can renew it.

Rudy Giuliani also seems to have peaked and is a sinking star. His latest tactic seems to be to be forthcoming about his views on abortion. The fact that he was not forthcoming until now bothers me as much as his stance on the issue. He has done some good things for the GOP, but I think he has too many skeletons in his closet. You can't be mayor of a city like New York and not have skeletons. An October surprise would not be a surprise in his case. For that reason he is even too risky for VP.

The star of John McCain seems to be rising a bit. He has stepped up his conservative rhetoric and some are buying it. I thank McCain for his service and respect his suffering in Vietnam. He has tried to get along with the opposition, but in a naive way thinking they also want what is best for the country more than power. If McCain were to become the nominee or even president I would not fret, but he would not be my first choice and I would be waiting for the frequent opportunities to blog about his bent to dart to the left from time to time.

My current first selection resides with Mitt Romney. Romney's Mormon background may cause some to reject him, I think that most of such bigotry resides on the Left as Al Sharpton displayed this week. Romney has several very strong points: his appearance is impressive, his communication is effective and articulated, his tremendously successful business background makes him the best choice for government financial reform. Financial reform can and must be the highest priority in the upcoming election. Bush firmly deserves the criticism he has received for the runaway deficit. However, the Dems have clearly shown they have no intention of fixing the problem - but making it worse. In spite of ill will against the GOP, the Dems will confirm by next year what they are now showing now - that they have nothing to offer. Romney can ride fiscal reform to the White House like no other candidate on either side.

His past views on abortion do not trouble me. Even if he truly is what some fear, I think that he would do nothing worse in this area. I do not see this country ever outlawing abortion. There may be a reversal of Roe vs. Wade, but most if not all states already have laws legalizing abortion even if it flips. At most there may be a town here and there that do not allow it and residents there will have to take a longer drive to kill their child. Victory over abortion will come in reducing the number of those who choose it and by a reduction in those who perform it. Both the US and the UK are having trouble keeping enough doctors willing to go into this "glamorous" field.

So as of today's snapshot, Mitt Romney is on top. The primaries are only just over half a year away. Romney's star is rising. Even if the Mormon bigotry is ugly, it gives Romney more national attention. We can all hope for the day when a president BOTH has good political positions AND can also articulate them well. If Romney wins he will have the same effectiveness in communication as Ronald Reagan. He also will have what Reagan did not have - the new media. If Reagan had enjoyed the benefits of Fox News, Conservative Talk Radio and the Internet "higher beings" of Hugh Hewitt, Michelle Malkin, Captain Ed Morrissey, Neal Boortz, Glenn Reynolds and the Powerline 3; he would have been even better. Imagine it.