Presidential 2008 Election June 23, 2007 Snapshot

A month ago I began the first of planned periodic snapshots of the 2008 presidential election. I figure it is about time for another. While on the surface it does not seem that much has changed, underneath I can sense some rumblings that surely result in a new landscape by the time the summer apathy begins to wear off.

First, John McCain has very likely committed political suicide by supporting the immigration reform bill. His only hope is that the thing will pass to give the appearance of a political victory. However, by the time the dust settles most will remember that McCain-Feingold CFR was also a "political victory" but has since shown itself to be a dog. Creating law is only a victory if it is good for the people. I have seen reports that McCain's fundraising is really suffering. If this continues he could be the first to withdraw.

Last snapshot I predicted that Fred Thompson had peaked. In fact he has continued rising and is supposed to announce officially next week that he is in. As I have said, I think there are some good things about Thompson. I heard recently that people are not so much allured by Fred Thompson as they are by his TV character on Law and Order. I think this is right. That does not mean that Thompson is bad, it just means that we know more about his TV character and happen to like it. If upon getting to know Thompson, we find we like his true identity maybe he has a chance. So at this point I will change my opinion that he has peaked and say that he will have another growth spurt after announcing. I think his numbers will settle down by the end of summer. His strength of course will be the South. This will make him a very strong contender.

Rudy Giuliani will soon be toast. He has peaked and is slowly sinking. I think we know most of what there is to know about him and therefore his growth is not sustainable. I have not seen him or heard much from him in the media lately. Sure I hear mention of him on talk radio but nothing fresh and exciting. Nothing more hidden in the wings for just the right time either. Thompson has passed him in the polls and he will not get it back.

Mitt Romney is still my favorite to win. The more that is slowly revealed about him the stronger he appears. The Mormon thing may be a strike against him, however it also is one of the things that keeps the media reporting on him. There will be a fresh batch of coverage when the movie "September Dawn" is released. Thompson has the upperhand on him in the south but coming fresh off of Iowa and New Hampshire (which I think he will win), Romney will have momentum.

So that is this snapshot. Things could change very quickly and be a whole new race any time. Time will tell. The three major "I" factors going forward are immigration, income taxes and Iraq.