The Logic Lifeline

A logical approach to sorting out world events. Where logic, opinion and speculation are combined to produce a reasoned, but entertaining reading experience. The unofficial hometown conservative blog of Woodridge, Il

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Presidential Election October 16, 2007 Snapshot

It has only been two weeks since my last snapshot. However, some very interesting events are unfolding that interest me. The last snapshot, I predicted that Mitt Romney will likely encounter some problems in the South. While I still think he has some rough territory there due to some bias against his Mormon faith, some key changes in the wind are beginning to blow. The most important changes are taking place in South Carolina. Hugh Hewitt is posting on Mitt's lead in key early states:
The mayor is betting the political farm on taking a number of losses in the early states but rising again on 2/5
...
Romney leads in the first three contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan, and some polls have him ahead in Nevada and South Carolina as well.

If the primaries are like the play-offs, losing the early games isn't a great way to set up getting to the big show.
He also is posting on a huge South Carolina endorsement - Robert Taylor of Bob Jones University. The University carries a lot of weight among a large Christian Conservative group in the state and around the country. There is also an endorsement from the school's Chancellor, Bob Jones III. However, I see his support as more than just an endorsement. Bob Jones III is sucking up his religious differences to show even someone as conservative as him can vote for a Mormon for President. His political qualifications carry greater weight than worrying about his faith. That is the angle that will carry the most punch.

Another presidential candidate, John McCain seems to be sensing what is happening and seeing South Carolina as the Waterloo of the GOP front runner. However, McCain is seeing it for Rudy Giuliani instead of himself. McCain must by now realize he has no chance of winning. It seems he would prefer Giuliani. Perhaps he is even thinking VP. He rejected it in the past when he thought he had enough capital to go for the top. Now that he is irrevocably beyond that, he might settle to be Rudy's VP. If such is the case, it would make sense why he and Giuliani are suddenly ganging up on Romney. This Politico article covers the attacks, but starts out wrong with the first two words: "Sensing weakness...". It should be "Sensing strength..."

Since my last snapshot I have begun sensing something really off about Fred Thompson. I have not put my finger on it until today. I think Thompson has been vying for VP all along and that he will be Mitt Romney's running partner if Mitt wins the nomination. I may be sticking my neck out a bit on that one, but it just does not feel like he is in it to win the gold.

The best developments are against Hillary. Obama has a large amount of money he can use to weaken Hillary. He has been a gentleman so far, but the gloves are going to have to come off some time. Giuliani is already going on the attack against Hillary stating (courtesy Drudge):
"Honestly, in most respects, I don't know Hillary's experience. She's never run a city, she's never run a state. She's never run a business. She has never met a payroll. She has never been responsible for the safety and security of millions of people, much less even hundreds of people.

"So I'm trying to figure out where the experience is here. It would seem to me that in a time of difficult problems and war we don't want on the job training for an executive. The reality is that these areas in which - maybe there are some areas in which she has experience but the areas of having the responsibility of the safety and security of millions of people on your shoulders is not something Hillary has ever had any experience with."
Running against Hillary is a popular thing to do among conservatives, so I expect to see all the GOP candidates joining the fun. Since she is a media darling, they will attempt to circle the wagons around her, and will succeed until she gets the nomination. It will be too late to prevent. There is so much ammunition against Shrillary, it will be fun to watch. Texas Rainmaker has embedded a video in a post about her and the "Largest Election Law Fraud in History". Click on over there an view it. You will be fascinated.

Finally, to make clear these snapshots are not predictions. They are slices of the campaign history for the 2008 election as I see them. Momentum may come and go. Candidates may rise and fall. Right now it looks like the momentum is going back to Mitt Romney.

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4 Comments:

  • At 11:52 AM, Anonymous Greg said…

    I'll go ahead and predict that a candidate who does not win S.C., Iowa or NH has no chance at the nomination. The way this works normally is that the winner of the early primaries gets a whole bunch of publicity from the win, voters and donors notice, and things snowball from there. Giuliani is committing political suicide, IMHO.

    On a slightly related topic, I was listening to O'Reilly's radio show (which is terrible, but I had an hour's drive and was boycotting the Red Sox game), and he was talking about the candidates' negatives. Hillary's are at about 49%; Giuliani, 38%; McCain, 34%; Obama, 30%; Romney, 35%. This measures the percentage of people who will not consider voting for the candidate, and those numbers are pretty high. Perhaps the Dems would be smart to nominate Obama; and the Repubs to nominate McCain. It'll never happen, though. Whoever ultimately wins will be hated by approximately 40% of the population. Not a good omen.

     
  • At 9:08 PM, Blogger LASunsett said…

    //Whoever ultimately wins will be hated by approximately 40% of the population. Not a good omen.//

    You know what this tells me?

    There should be a choice on the ballot for: None of the above. If that one gets the most votes, they have to send us new candidates, for a new election.

     
  • At 11:34 PM, Blogger All_I_Can_Stands said…

    greg,

    Welcome to LL. I think you are right about Giuliani's strategy. His work in the states past SC will melt under the big Mo of a winner in IA, NH and SC.

     
  • At 11:36 PM, Blogger All_I_Can_Stands said…

    LA,

    The option is quite attractive. Better yet, none of the above and the office goes vacant until next election. No laws passed. No increase in the budget or taxes.

    Ok, a bit reckless with nobody at the helm in the middle of a war, but what fun.

     

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