Presidential Election October 3, 2007 Snapshot

It has been a few months since I have written a snapshot on the Presidential election. Since there are only a few months before the primary voting starts, I think it is prudent to add a couple of snapshots beforehand. Things have been unusually slow regarding the primary election coverage of GOP candidates. This could be for several reasons - my first choice of course is the favoritism by the media bestowed on Hillary and Barack. The other reason could be the lack of exceptionalism in the slate of GOP candidates. Not that there are not good qualities in these candidates, but that it is difficult without an MSM PR campaign (unlikely to happen) that to find traits to latch onto with strong passion.

Since the last snapshot, Fred Thompson has officially entered the race, Newt Gingrich has given official word he is going to pass this time and surprisingly John McCain is still in the race contrary to my prediction. McCain has admitted his poor standing to be directly related to his co-sponsorship to the comprehensive immigration bill and has even taken some steps of reversal in his position. It is far too little and too late. He also is still living down his part in the Campaign Finance Reform bill that was passed and gave rise to groups like MoveOn.Oink and other 527s entities. McCain was also one of the Senators that prevented the nuclear option that would allow simple up or down votes for court nominees without the harassment of a filibuster. Finally, McCain will continue to have trouble living down his MSM granted label "Maverick" which is a code word for spineless compromiser with Democrats. His campaign is now carrying a heavy debt. I know he has assets he can liquidate in order to continue the pain. It seems he is determined to make it to the first primaries, so we will need to see him a little longer.

Gauging the rest of the GOP field is very difficult. I think it is more a matter of momentum and direction each campaign is progressing rather than actual standing in the polls. I have seen any recent polls anyway. Giuliani and Romney have either been static or slightly falling in their standing. I still think Romney has a good shot in Iowa. That may jump-start his momentum again, but it is not likely to be enough to get past the South unless he makes significant progress in the next few months.

I know there is a recent flap about some Christian conservative groups threatening to form a third party if Giuliani is the nominee. I don't intend to spend much time on it because I do not think he will be the nominee. It was a premature and foolish statement that will really only result in leaving a bad taste in people's mouths against the favorite target of the media. I will say that I think the whole notion of groups that tell their members who to vote for is ridiculous. This goes for Dobson's group, unions and AARP. Just give people information and let them make up their own minds. On a somewhat related topic, I heard on the radio today that Monica Lewinsky has decided to vote GOP because the Dems left a bad taste in her mouth. (rimshot)

The long shot with some current promise is Mike Huckabee. He came in second in the Iowa Straw Poll, but he and Romney were the only ones seriously contending for it. Regardless, Huckabee's momentum is in a positive direction and he is definitely a prime choice for the more conservative wing of the party. Should his candidacy reach a point of perceived viability, he would have a strong shot. He would do exceptionally well in the South in that case.

My current prediction for the South, however, goes to Fred Thompson. Thompson is another candidate with momentum in the right direction. This is to be expected after announcing. I think it is not as strong as he had hoped. Of the top tier candidates, Thompson is the least likely to suffer from fatigue - people getting tired of him. This leaves him in the best position to continue a positive trend. Every time Thompson makes a significant commentary on a current topic (such as his videos) it comes across very well. He should not over-do it but it is a very sharp tool in his arsenal.

If I had to put money on it today, I would say Thompson will get the nomination. That victory is less than half way, though. We will need to hope that the Dems keep shooting themselves in the foot and that the GOP nominee doesn't.