What will a cease-fire solve?
We keep hearing people like Dopi Annan calling for an immediate cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah. I have yet to hear what they think a cease-fire will solve. Israel will not yield on their right to exist and it does not seem likely that Hezbollah will give up on its position that Israel has no right to exist. A cease-fire is simply a delay.
Several important factors to consider here. An organization like Hezbollah who has no problem lobbing inaccurate rockets into a civilian population, is not in a position to negotiate honestly. Since murder of innocents is nothing to them, lying at the negotiating table is also nothing to them. Hezbollah is not a country, nor a clearly defined leadership structure. Even if this head leader agrees to anything significant, what is to stop lower leaders from breaking out on their own and breaking any agreement. As has been asked by many: who do you negotiate with in Hezbollah?
It is a faulty premise that diplomacy can solve anything. There are some things that diplomacy will never solve. When you are dealing with the right to exist, perhaps erradication of one side is the only solution. What we have seen during this conflict is that the meddling of the rest of the world to keep peace has given Hezbollah an opportunity to heavily fortify itself. Israel is having a tougher time than expected going against them. We have also seen that giving up land has only brought the enemies of Israel closer to their doorstep. So after the world has finished meddling the enemies of Israel now are closer and stronger.
Some that support the Palestinian cause seem only to be concerned with that aspect of this conflict. Others clearly see the shadowy hand of Iran behind the actions of Hezbollah. From the restraint of the other Arab countries in the region, we can surmise that they see the clear danger Iran poses to the whole region and that it is larger than the Israel / Palestinian issue.
The bottom line is that while war is a horrible thing, sometimes it is the only path to resolution. A premature cease-fire in my opinion will leave too many elements of Hezbollah to regroup and cause more conflict in the future.
Several important factors to consider here. An organization like Hezbollah who has no problem lobbing inaccurate rockets into a civilian population, is not in a position to negotiate honestly. Since murder of innocents is nothing to them, lying at the negotiating table is also nothing to them. Hezbollah is not a country, nor a clearly defined leadership structure. Even if this head leader agrees to anything significant, what is to stop lower leaders from breaking out on their own and breaking any agreement. As has been asked by many: who do you negotiate with in Hezbollah?
It is a faulty premise that diplomacy can solve anything. There are some things that diplomacy will never solve. When you are dealing with the right to exist, perhaps erradication of one side is the only solution. What we have seen during this conflict is that the meddling of the rest of the world to keep peace has given Hezbollah an opportunity to heavily fortify itself. Israel is having a tougher time than expected going against them. We have also seen that giving up land has only brought the enemies of Israel closer to their doorstep. So after the world has finished meddling the enemies of Israel now are closer and stronger.
Some that support the Palestinian cause seem only to be concerned with that aspect of this conflict. Others clearly see the shadowy hand of Iran behind the actions of Hezbollah. From the restraint of the other Arab countries in the region, we can surmise that they see the clear danger Iran poses to the whole region and that it is larger than the Israel / Palestinian issue.
The bottom line is that while war is a horrible thing, sometimes it is the only path to resolution. A premature cease-fire in my opinion will leave too many elements of Hezbollah to regroup and cause more conflict in the future.
posted by All_I_Can_Stands @ 8:21 AM
17 Comments:
At 9:45 AM,
Mojo_Risin said…
I know, another long comment from Mojo... I just can't seem to say anything without saying everything.
Though I can understand the desire for a cease-fire (it will cause a delay in the killing and possibly bring people to the table to come up with a solution), you're absolutely right in that it won't cause hostilities to stop.
Hostilities probably won't stop without the countries involved working it out themselves.
The countries in the Middle East have a history that stretches back into ancient times –- of small groups vying for power against other smaller groups. Of course, in the pre-Renaissance era, that was true even in Europe. And what did we have there then? We had wars that lasted for 100 years off and on. We had rival families duking it out over titles and territory for generation after generation (War of the Roses, anyone?). It is only in recent times, after the revolutions of 1848 and after the worldwide bloodbaths of World Wars 1 and 2 that this has changed. We have had relative peace between nations for the past 50 years. That is reflected in the Cold War. We had the power to annihilate each other but we didn’t do it. Our cultures had changed.
Now, the countries that you see on the map in the Middle East, including Israel, weren't formed that way -- Britain and other countries split them up based on their colonial interests in the area, regardless of whether those borders are "natural". As a result, people are stuck with others who are historical enemies. That has caused a lot of anger in the region there.
So I think, unfortunately, we need to take a more hands-off approach and let this take its natural course.
At 10:08 AM,
All_I_Can_Stands said…
Mojo, we agree on something. You raise an excellent point about the structure of the countries. Iraq is the best example with 3 different groups with links to the surrounding countries.
While I am a supporter of Israel I wonder if the timing and nature of reconstituting the country could have been done differently. I think 1948 was probably the only time it could have happened at all, though with post WWII sympathy.
I tend to agree with your hands-off approach from the standpoint that everytime the Western world gets involved over there things get worst. We do have the huge interest of oil that cannot at this time be ignored. Some simply cannot imagine the economic devastation that would occur if the free flow of oil ceased.
At 10:29 AM,
Mojo_Risin said…
Make that 2 things we agree on, AICS: if we suddenly lose our oil supply, we're in trouble.
At 11:20 AM,
SkyePuppy said…
Some simply cannot imagine the economic devastation that would occur if the free flow of oil ceased.
There are some on the extremes who would welcome the economic devastation caused by the sudden shut-off of oil. They're the same ones who want 90% of the world's population to die off (I posted on them a while ago).
At 1:42 PM,
Mojo_Risin said…
Skye,
Yep, there are some extreme doomsdayers who would look at war in the Middle East with Israel, ballooning to World War III, resulting in the near-extinction of humanity, as the fulfillment of prophecy. Some of them would even be willing to help the prophecies along a bit.
One thing's for sure... oil is going to cause a pretty big war one day soon. I just hope this isn't the one.
At 4:48 PM,
SkyePuppy said…
Mojo,
Some of them would even be willing to help the prophecies along a bit.
Are you talking about Christians, or Iranian President Nutcase?
I don't know whether I need to get my dander up or not.
At 5:00 PM,
Mojo_Risin said…
I should just let you decide for yourself, but I was talking about end-of-the-worlders from both sides.
At 5:14 PM,
Mojo_Risin said…
But why would you need to get your dander up because I say some extremist Christians want to help fulfill prophecy? You have to realize there are some of those wack-jobs out there... ?
But anyway, this is off-topic.
At 6:13 PM,
SkyePuppy said…
Mojo,
My dander is staying down where it belongs.
Some people see all Christians as extremist nutjobs, so I wasn't sure...
At 9:20 PM,
Anonymous said…
Just a small comment, you are lacking certain information on the real scope of the situation and many of your assumptions I can see from your faulty Western information; makes you seen a little misinformed of the bigger issue.
At 10:37 PM,
Anonymous said…
Ahmed
I can't wait for an enlightened explanation of the real bigger picture you say others are missing.
At 4:29 AM,
Malott said…
Ahmed,
Before I would be interested in hearing your opinion, I'd have to know whether or not you believe Israel has the right to exist. That seems to be the basis for every opinion and every point of view.
In the eyes of the Western World, the Palestinians have distinguished themselves in such a way that makes us believe that if they were allowed to march into Israel and kill every Jew... they would have a party for a couple weeks but then return to being as miserable and wretched as they are today.
Israel is not the Palestinians' or the Arabs'problem any more than the investment bankers on Wall Street are the problem that New York's ghetto dwellers face.
Israel has made the desert bloom in many ways, and her accomplishments shame her neighbors and make them envious.
I don't know why some cultures lag behind the modern world, but hating and bombing is no way to catch up.
I agree with AICS. A cease-fire only perpetuates the problem. And restricting Israel to a "proportional" response condemns her to a perpetual siege.
There are many Arabs in the region that actually love their children more than they hate Israel, and want to build something for their future. Hopefully one day their ideals will triumph over their real obstacle, the haters of radical Islam.
At 8:13 AM,
Mojo_Risin said…
How's about we listen to the argument he actually uses before we trash him for what we assume his argument is?
At 8:48 AM,
LA Sunset said…
AICS,
Any UN measure will be like putting a bandaid on an arterial bleed.
At 10:09 AM,
All_I_Can_Stands said…
Mojo,
In theory you are right that it is best to listen to what somebody has to say before arguing with them (like hammer did). However, my money is on Malott is guessing correctly in what ahmed has to say.
Malott,
Very well written. I like your reference to Golda Meier's quote that there will be peace when they love their children more than they hate Israel.
LA,
Actually, it can be worse than a bandaid. It could be more like cutting the patient more; or administering blood thinners.
At 2:39 PM,
Anonymous said…
I try to give you a simple word of advice and you come at me like a bunch of wild dogs after a single bone. In turn you insult me when I tried to help you.
So the old saying ugly American must be true.
At 4:59 PM,
All_I_Can_Stands said…
Ahmed,
Perhaps our reaction was a bit knee-jerk. However, we rarely hear disagreement that is not radical. Perhaps you can clarify your position and we can see if we jumped the gun or not.
All opinions are welcome here.
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