One common trend I am seeing is that most people have a difficult time tearing away from their desired outcome when making election predictions. I admit I may be in that category, but I think my view is a good mix between realism and optimism. There are several factors:
1) The GOP has the momentum according to the latest polls
2) Barrons pointed out the money advantage of the GOP
3) How often have we seen the polls favor Dems by several points and see a GOP victory. I
think it is probably a safe bet to add 2-3 points to the GOP candidate in every high profile
race
So here are some predictions:
Senate:
Arizona - Jon Kyl (R)
Connecticut - Lieberman (I)
Maryland - Michael Steele (R) (thanks to Gore campaigning for Cardin)
Michigan - Debbie Stabanow (D)
Minnesota - Amy Klobuchar (D)
Missouri - Jim Talent (R)
Montana - Conrad Burns (R)
New Jersey - Kean may pull of an upset, but I am calling Menendez (D)
Pennsylvania (My long shot) Santorum by 2% (R)
Ohio - Sherrod Brown (D)
Rhode Island - Lincoln Chaffee will pull it off. (R)
Tennesee - Bob Corker (R)
Virginia - George Allen (R)
Washington - Maria Cantwell (D)
House:
(I can't do all 435)
Indiana -07 - Eric Dickerson (R)
Minnesota - 06 - Bachmann (R)
Florida - 16 - Joe Negron (R) (as Mark Foley)
Illinois - 06 - Roskam (R) over Duckworth by less than 1000 votes
Illinois - 08 - Melissa Bean (D)
Illinois - 10 - Mark Kirk (R)
Texas - 22 - Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) will pull off a surprise
Final overall numbers GOP will lose 3 seats in the Senate and lose 10 seats in the House
If my predictions are wrong then what? I will be disappointed, but I certainly won't be falling apart in despair. Maybe some good would come of it:
- Perhaps the US needs a reminder why power shifted to the GOP.
- We will get to see the Dems disappointed in their elected officials
- The Democrats will implode in a fight between the far left kooks and those who want
continued existence of the party
- The Dems will face a lose - lose situation: If they move to impeach, they will be exposed for
being too radical. If they do not move to impeach, those who elected them will be furious
- Conservative blogs get to do a little offensive work for a change
In any event, I will not get a chance to post on the election for nearly a week. My wife and I are flying out tomorrow to head to Hawaii for an early celebration of our anniversary. However the election turns out, we can all be thankful to live here (as Michael Medved calls it) "the greatest nation on God's green earth". God Bless America. See you in a week.